Sunday, April 10, 2016

Weighing the Risks of Terror


The risk of being a terror victim underlies the fact that most Americans consider terrorism to be the number one threat facing the country.

San Bernardino catapulted what had been a general, somewhat vague worry into an intense concern.  Fear of another terror attack reached poll numbers not seen since the immediate aftermath of 9/11.  Yet, on a risk scale, the chances of an American becoming a terror victim remain infinitesimally small.  Yes, fourteen people were killed by radical islamist terrorists in California.  But we live in a land of three hundred thirty million.  The chances of dying in an accident caused by a drunk driver, for instance, are much greater.  The number dying from such a cause was 10,076 in 2013.

Those statistical realities undoubtedly had a role in what was viewed as the White House’s tardy recognition of the widespread alarm across America about the San Bernardino massacre.
 
Plainly – no surprise here – President Obama doesn’t understand human nature.  Human kind is genetically programmed to exaggerate threats to existence.  Maybe that’s why our species, unlike dinosaurs, still populates the earth.  This is not merely informal speculation.  Modern studies make this aspect of human behavior undeniable (an excellent summary is found in David Kahneman’s Thinking Fast and Slow, a readable, present day classic on human psychology).

Statistics don’t matter to most people when viewing a risk to survival.  But that doesn’t mean their fears should be dismissed as being illogical or unfounded.  They are not.
 
Fatal accidents are, and always have been, a fact of life.  Most of us ignore them, whether riding in a car or airplane.  But acts of intentional harm are another matter.  From a practical perspective, that risk cannot be avoided.  We can choose to stay out of dangerous neighborhoods, but do we need to fear a party at work in a middle class area, with the evil doers looking for us?  Now we do.

So we fear the terrorist more than the drunk driver.  It’s a human reaction.

No comments:

Post a Comment