Why Do Forty Percent Still Back Obama?

Is it premature to call Barack Obama a failed president?  Perhaps.  But it certainly seems fair to term him as such to date.

Apparently, judging by a variety of polls, about 40% think he’s doing just fine.

How can they think that in the face of domestic embarrassments like Obamacare, VA Hospitals and IRS scandals as well as foreign policies and actions which are a mixture of debacles and disasters?  Think Syrian red lines, Iran’s nuclear program, Russian re-set, Ukrainian dismemberment, North Korean defiance and, most recently, Iraq’s sectarian disintegration with Afghanistan on the verge of failure.

Part of the President’s support is easy to explain.  Twelve percent of America is black and about eighty-percent are still in his corner (ten percent who backed him in 2012 have since come to their senses).  Racial loyalty is understandable.  For the others, party loyalty must be the answer.  Thirty percent of Americans are self-identified Democrats.  Blind support from that group is less understandable.  Fine, a person can support the president because he is a fellow Democrat and/or he likes liberals.

 

But can you also fairly say that you approve of his job performance (as about forty percent of Americans say) in light of his dismal record?  What exactly in his job performance is approved of?

The political reality is that only one-third of us have our support “up for grabs”.  Democrats at thirty percent (including most black voters) and Republicans at twenty-five percent are usually “precommitted”.  Independents, including all political persuasions, are about thirty-five percent.  The remaining ten percent evidently don’t care or know the name of the president.

 

Given these facts, it is obvious why presidential elections are focused on a relatively small slice of the electorate.  Those in the middle are the only votes really in play.  Further, these facts explain why campaign efforts also focus heavily on getting one’s base to the polls.  They needn’t be convinced to support their party’s candidate, but their enthusiasm does matter in motivating them to vote.

Considering Obama’s dismal performance, there is reasonable hope that although the Democrats have a forty-percent floor on their support, the ceiling may be decidedly below fifty percent in 2016.