Is the GOP on a Death Watch?

One might think so given the reaction to the Republican National Committee’s recent release of a study of 2012 election results entitled Growth and Opportunity Project (nickname: autopsy report). 

But the fear – or hope – is surely grossly exaggerated

Sure, the vote for president was disappointing, to say the least.  It’s natural for attention on the right to focus on what went wrong.  But let’s maintain some perspective.  Romney lost by 3 points!

Considering the deficiencies of the candidate – “47%”, self-deportation, awkward demeanor, etc., it is a wonder that the Republican standard bearer did as well as he did.

Losing campaigns often target the messenger, not the message, as being responsible for the outcome.  And usually, the focus is misplaced.  The voters probably did reject the message, but not always, and not in 2012. 

Exit polls reflected a basically conservative electorate.  Last fall, a Pew Research survey showed that the public favored a smaller government over increased services by 51% - 40%.  So “autopsy” seems somewhat hysterical and over-wrought.  Yes, it would appear that liberals “out-teched” the GOP and were surprisingly successful in replicating the ’08 coalition of women, minorities and young voters.  But Republicans who are now aware of the deficiencies aren’t likely to fall short on technology next time.  Nor is it conceivable that fortune (Hurricane Sandy and Gov. Chris Christie) will smile so warmly on the Democrats in 2016.

Having a better candidate will not assure victory for the GOP but that, with other factors, touched upon above should make it much more likely.