The Problem with Extrapolation

 

There is a natural tendency of people – well documented by social science - to extrapolate events seen on TV as being representative of the same even in numbers much greater than reality.

As an example, media coverage of homosexuals in various guises has resulted in public opinion that gays constitute 10% of the general population.  Surveys place the actual number at less than half of that.

Thus, when the media broadcasts seemingly incessantly  the video of the Memphis assault as a motorist pulled over ostensibly for a traffic violation, the impression is created that the conduct shown is engaged in by police more generally.

The consequences flowing from this perception can be deadly.  Think of the widespread rioting and deaths following the killing (determined by a jury) of George Floyd.  That there was no evidence that the Minnesota police officer was truly representative of police across the nation didn’t seem to matter.  Extrapolation took place and apparently motivated “protests” from Philadelphia to Atlanta.

The lesson for the media is that without balance or caution the press can be implicated (intentionally or not) in promoting extrapolation and attendant violence.

This is not to suggest that news of such a negative sort should not be reported.  But it should be aired in context to counteract the tendency to extrapolate unless such is unnecessary  

For example, ISIS terrorists are sworn to kill infidels.  Thus, reporting that an ISIS member killed an “infidel” need not be qualified.  Extrapolation is appropriate since the conduct is consistent with ISIS policy.  ISIS members carried out its objective.

Back to the assaults committed by five members of the Memphis Police Department.  Extrapolation should be discouraged by any responsible news organization.  Fox News in particular has provided balance by showing the video and featuring law enforcement authorities emphasizing   that the misconduct shown is not typical of police in general and is certainly contrary to their training.

Alas, there seems to be a strong anti-police attitude among certain left-wing elements in our nation, including some media “stars” featured on MSNBC and elsewhere.  They want to inflame, not provide balance.