What Is the Future of the Republican Party?

 

Better than you’ve heard!

Those of us old enough to recall know the prediction of the GOP’s demise following Barry Goldwater’s landslide loss in 1964.    

Forecasts were the same from Democrats and the media after Watergate and Nixon’s resignation in 1973.

So, unsurprisingly, the “Chicken Littles” have surfaced once again in the wake of Trump’s defeat and the unseemly end of his presidency.  (The impeachment is a sideshow which will have no impact on the Republican Party’s future.)

To be sure, there are some concerns.  Polling suggests that about half of Trump’s voters consider themselves as loyalists of his rather than as primarily supporters of the GOP.  So will they vote for the Republican candidates in 2022 and beyond when the former President is neither on the ballet or in office?

The challenge is to wean the “Trump first” constituency from its primary allegiance.  That will not be accomplished by leading Party officials bashing Donald Trump.  The outrage over his role in the Jan. 6 riot (the term “insurrection” is hyperbole favored by the media and Nancy Pelosi) is understandable.  But to target Trump for that will only deepen his base’s devotion.  They long ago attributed hostility him as a product of left-wing bias. 

Instead, the GOP “establishment” made up of non-Trumpeans should focus on issues which attracted so many Americans to vote for him in the first place:  pride in America, stemming illegal immigration, condemning political correctness (transgender bathroom access, etc.) and demanding fair foreign trade policies.

Combined with emphasis on shared issues, Party leaders should not hesitate to credit the former President for his accomplishment in presiding, pre-Covid 19, over a booming economy and solid judicial appointments.

Such efforts will affirm that Republicans welcome like-minded Trump loyalists and will ease their hoped-for transition to committed GOP stalwarts as most eventually recognize that Donald Trump does not reflect the future.

This is not to suggest that Donald Trump will welcome the weakening of his loyal base.  His personal vanity will not allow him to acknowledge that to himself, much less to others.  So he can be expected to “punish” Republicans who do not pledge 100% fidelity.  That is not a threat to be ignored.  But that is precisely why the “soft” attitude toward the former president is so advisable.  A non-adversarial regard for Trump believers now  should blunt the effectiveness of Trump’s expected efforts in the by-elections next year to unseat Republicans for not being “Trump enough”.

[Any generally successful performances by GOP officeholders in fending off Trump-backed primary opponents will also have another benefit.  It will make the famous "suburban women" voting group more inclined to rejoin the Republican field since Trump's influence will be seen to have been diminished.]