New Covid-19 Statistics - What They Mean for Public Policy

News broadcasts feature prominently each day Covid–19 infection and fatality numbers.  The death rate in the U.S. is presented at about 6% (7% worldwide).  These are horrifying and scary figures, indeed.

However, recent testing of thousands of Americans suggests that these results are heavily skewed on the negative side.

Apparently, far more people have been infected than was previously believed.  That is because the virus results in little or no problems for most of those infected.  Further, the updated statistics make clear that, except for the elderly and those affected with serious health conditions (such as diabetes) the risks are mild and low.

The revisions, however statistically sound they may be, are not very comforting for the exceptions just noted.  Isolation, “stay at home” remain appropriate policies for them until such time as a vaccine is administered.

But is that sensible?  Having been alerted to the risks, should not competent members of the vulnerable group be free to join the broader society, if they wish?

What about children returning to school?  In most situations, that would seem the right thing to do.  Neither the children nor staff members (because of relative youth) are at serious risk.  But here is a complication.  What about the child who lives with grandparents?  Although the child who becomes infected is likely to be OK, he can nonetheless spread the virus to them.  Isolating the elderly family members from the grandchild living with them is totally unrealistic.  Does that mean that a child in that situation should not go to school?

Likewise, is the middle-aged child caring for her 85 year old mother going to be able to return to work?  If so, she too is risking the exposure of her parent to the virus she will likely carry, even if asymptomatic.

To be sure, there are difficulties to “re-opening” life and inevitably there will be second-guessing if and when death rates move up.  But a free society – to which most Americans seek to return – has always carried risks.  Inherent in the exercise of freedom is that some will abuse it by acting irresponsibly or malevolently.  Focus on the abusers, not the vast majority who are not.

Thus, for instance, leave beach goers alone.  They do not pose serious threats to the non-elderly.  Same goes for any other large gathering including concerts and sporting events.  Go at your own risk. 

That is what freedom is – and America should be – about.