What Does Sincerity or Appearance of Credibility Have to do with Truth?

 Not as much as is commonly thought.

How often have we heard someone being commended for being ‘believable”?

Think of the widespread view that the Kavanaugh “sex assault” hearing featured two people making “very believable” presentations – and each sharply disputing the position of the other.  Certainly, someone (maybe both) was not telling the truth.

That doesn’t mean, necessarily, that one was a liar.  There is a general misconception that a person who says something that is untrue is a liar.  But a person who believes something that is false would seem as believable – credible – as someone who believes what is actual truth.  A liar, on the other hand, knows that what he is saying is false; he does not believe it.  For liars (certainly not all), their manner betrays their insincerity (such as looking down, the tone of the voice, refusal to look the listener in the eye, etc.).  The sincere person believes in what he is saying and so appears truthful.  But the reality is actually only that the person genuinely believes what he is saying.  Plainly, belief does not make an assertion true.

So how does one differentiate behind the conflicting accounts of two people, each of whom appears credible (but obviously one or neither is)?   

This is what judges and juries try to do every day.

In the mid-twentieth century, famed New York City trial attorney Louis Nizer wrote an acclaimed memoir entitled  My Life in Court.  In the book’s introduction, Nizer advised readers that if they learn nothing else from reading the collection of his noteworthy cases it should be this:  in judging a person’s credibility ignore how he testifies – focus instead on what he says.  Simply, does it make sense?  If so, he may be truthful, if not, he probably isn’t.

People tend to act in predictable ways.  If a person claims that he acted in a way one knows is unusual, skepticism is appropriate.

An extreme example:  A witness states that even though someone in a crowded theater where he was present shouted fire and those around him were fleeing, he remained in his seat.  No matter how believable, how creditable the witness seemed, it is highly unlikely that his account was true.