The ISIS bombing of a Russian civilian plane has thrown a
hitch in Vladimir Putin’s plans for the Middle East. As predicted here on October 4, the Russian
tyrant’s intention in getting involved in Syria was to boot the Assad regime by
first destroying the pro-western forces opposing the Syrian dictator. Then, after that, move against ISIS. And that is precisely what he has sought to
do, until the terrorist attack upended the Russian time table.
Evidently, the Sunni terrorists weren’t willing to wait
until Putin had decided to take them on so they struck first.
What happens next?
Expect the Russian reaction to be ruthless. That’s their style. They care not one whit about collateral
damage or the extent of harm caused to non-terrorist elements in the vicinity
of ISIS targets. So called surgical
strikes are tools of soft, overly sensitive western militaries. Sledge-hammer assaults are more reliable in
decimating any resistance. Ask the Chechnyains
of a would-be break-away province of Russia still living in the rubble created
by Putin’s forces. Undoubtedly there
will be a change in Russian priorities. That
means a lessening of military pressure on the pro-western elements in Syria and
any remaining in Iraq.
Alas, the Obama Administration is unlikely to take
advantage of this opportunity to significantly aid those forces. The President has repeatedly shown a
reluctance to forcefully assert U.S. interests.
It’s reasonable to expect that Putin – having long ago take
the measure of Barack Obama – believes that a shift in priorities to ISIS now
will not significantly impact his plan to bolster Syria’s Assad. The American president will not effectively
interfere.
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