A Wing and a Prayer

Is that a fair characterization of the hope that the Administration has rested on the newly-minted Iran nuclear deal?

Under the circumstances that President Obama was committed to a deal – any deal - it’s hard to disagree.  Consider that the initial U.S. objective was to prevent Teheran from developing nuclear weapons.  What happened?  Now, to hear Obama crow, America is supposed to feel good that if the terrorist state abides by the agreement, they won’t have the bomb for ten years.

Of course, it’s appropriate to doubt that Iran will so abide.  The White House, however, contends that we shouldn’t worry because sanctions will be immediately re-imposed in the event of a violation of the agreement.

But the reality is that sanctions were a long time coming and aren’t likely to be “snapped back”.  And who thinks Russia and China will cooperate?  Both Putin and Beijing have focused in recent years on challenging U.S. interests. 

So, fine, let’s assume that Iran is on its best behavior for a decade.  What then? 

Will Israel be content that it has ten years to go until the Mullahs have the capability to destroy it?  And are the Sunni states (Saudi Arabia and Jordan, in particular) in the Middle East expected to wait patiently while the Shia stronghold uses the time to gather strength to use against them?

Of course, in 2025 Barack Obama will undoubtedly be happily ensconced in a Chicago library dedicated to his wonderfulness.

What has happened in the interim is not only not his problem – it causes him no worry either.  After all, he tried to instruct people - and nations - on how they should conduct themselves.  The fact that they didn’t listen absolves him of responsibility.

One can almost hear him lament “it’s a shame about Israel, but what was I to do?  Risk war?”

And history will respond, “but war came anyway, didn’t it Mr. President?”

A political forecast:

The three Americans held by Iran (political prisoners) will be released while Congress is considering whether to ok the deal.  A cynic (myself included) will note that John Kerry (with Obama’s approval) and Teheran entered into a secret deal hoping that the “surprise” release would be viewed as proof of Teheran’s good faith.  Too cute, by half.