How Does the GOP Get Back into the Win Column? [Or, Don’t Learn the Wrong Lessons from 2012]

The hope – and expectation –last year was that the tottering economy would lead to Romney’s election and full control of Congress, meaning a conservative government on the national level.  But the outcome should not be interpreted as a disaster.

So what do we do now?  One thing we certainly shouldn’t do is panic.  That reaction was displayed aplenty post-election.  Normally level headed Washington Post columnist Charles Krauthammer (a highly regarded conservative pundit) as well as Fox’s populist right-winger Sean Hannity led a chorus calling for dramatic changes in the GOP’s immigration policy, citing Romney’s mere 27% support from Hispanic voters.

There may be legitimate reasons for easing the Republican policy against amnesty, but it is foolish to expect significant political gains from doing so. 

The Hispanic vote has never been partial to Republican candidates for reasons that have nothing to do with immigration. 

For perspective, note that in 1980 Ronald Reagan received only 24% from such voters vs 76% for Jimmy Carter.  In 1996, GOP nominee Robert Dole got only 21% vs Clinton’s 79%.  Immigration policies were definitely not an electoral concern in either contest.  Romney did better than both. 

Of course, he got less than the 30% obtained by McCain in 2008 and the 40% garnered by George W. Bush in 2004.  (Bush’s high support appears as an aberration since he had been a popular governor of a state with a strong Hispanic population.)

Latinos, like blacks, have long had a preference for Democrats because, in part, of their perceived economic interests.

I suggest the fact that Hispanics are far more likely to be on welfare than whites, for instance, is illustrative.

Government statistics from 2010 reveal that of the 40 million receiving food stamps that year, 10% were Hispanic.  That may not seem alarming since that’s a lower rate than their 15% of the total U.S. population.  But in comparison, consider that whites constitute 80% of all Americans but fill only 36% of food stamp rolls.  To put it another way, Hispanics were 50% more likely to be on welfare than whites.  Thus, Hispanic voters generally have a greater interest in supporting the political party more oriented toward increased welfare spending. 

In sum, significantly expanding Republican support among Hispanics does not appear to be a promising prospect. 

An interesting footnote:  Optimists cite the appeal that conservative values have in Latin communities where family, pro-life and traditional marriage are held in higher regard than in, for instance, the broader white community.  But keep in mind that the same is true among blacks and that hasn’t stopped that community from supporting overwhelmingly in presidential election after election Democrats who don’t reflect such values.