How Did Obama Win?

As discussed last week, Hurricane Sandy was a God-send to the president.  It allowed Barack Obama to act not only presidential but, thanks to Gov. Chris Christie’s bear hug, appear bipartisan, as well.  And, of course, the general media was on his team throughout the campaign.  (Remember how the final pre-election unemployment numbers were reported?  Although the unemployment rate rose from 7.8 to 7.9%, presumably a bad sign for the President, the media emphasis was on the report that more new jobs had been counted than expected.)

But some of the election and exit poll data is less obvious. 

How was it that this so-called most crucial presidential election in decades, one which would determine the path of America, attracted 4 million (3%) fewer voters than had gone to the polls in 2008?  And that the drop-off all came from Obama’s totals?

So why did the 4 million stay home?  Were they no longer enamored of the President but weren’t won over by the GOP candidate?  And why didn’t Romney gain significantly more votes than his predecessor nominee who was faced with a, then, highly popular opponent championing hope and change?

The assault on Romney in the swing states worked.  Taken together, he lost them by a 5% margin.  He lost the other states, together, by 2%.

The Republican candidate, by early campaign calculations, needed the independent vote to win.  He got it by a ten point margin (McCain had lost it by four).

The Democrats’ hope to use GOP Medicare revision proposals to scare older voters away from Gov. Romney did not work.  Exit polls from 2008 and 2012 showed a slight increase for the Republican ticket this year among those over 65! 

The gender gap cut both ways, although somewhat in Obama’s favor.  Romney had a 7% edge among men and an 11% deficit among women. 

“Hope” for Obama was very much alive, unsurprisingly, among blacks, with 93% in his corner, down slightly from last time.  (Considering that blacks, in particular, have suffered in Obama’s “recovery”, loyalty to party and race plainly trumped other considerations for this portion of the electorate.)

But the loyalty of the young voter was a surprise.  They, too, have inordinately suffered in the economy.  But they backed President Obama strongly, though support for those under thirty declined from 66% four years ago to 60% this time.  Evidently, the Obama aura, which Republicans thought had disappeared long ago, remains potent for many.  Their wish to believe obviously gave the President a pass on what others (such as this conservative) view as obvious short-comings.

Where do we conservatives go from here?  I will offer my thoughts soon.

Disappointed as we all are in the election results, we still live in a great country.  Our job continues to be to do what we can to keep it that way.  So in that spirit, I wish you a very Happy Thanksgiving.