Does Donald Trump Threaten the Future of the Republican Party?

Such fears are expressed quietly within GOP ranks.  They are based upon concerns that President Trump, a Hillary Clinton Democrat not so long ago, has transformed the Republican Party into a populist bastion which is isolationist and free-spending, quite different from its conservative tradition.

Polls support the worries, with close to 90% of Republican voters expressing approval of the president.  Yet it is a mistake to conclude that such backing is an endorsement of Trump’s conduct and policies, at least not all of them.

Old-line Republicans (of whom The Sensible Conservative is decidedly one), basically approve of Trump’s domestic policies, citing immigration, judicial appointments and bureaucratic reform.  They are less enamored with unbridled spending and a disregard for entitlement reform.  And there is growing alarm with his seeming ignorance of foreign affairs which fosters policies of doubtful benefit to the U.S.  Think Syria and North Korea in particular.

But what about members of the base who attend Trump rallies (featured regularly on Fox News) or who identify with President Trump? Their allegiance seems tied to him rather than the Republican Party.  So what happens when Trump is no longer in the White House?

Are they “Trumpians” first who will remain on the electoral sidelines when Donald Trump is no longer on the ballot?

That question is why so many Republican politicians avoid saying anything which might annoy the president and, thus, alienate his fervent supporters.

That attitude, although politically reasonable, places them in an embarrassing predicament, delightedly highlighted by the liberal media.

To illustrate - earlier this month, the most popular question for the mainstream media (like CNN’s Jake Tapper and NBC’s Chuck Todd) to ask GOP congressmen was a variation of the following:

“Do you agree that it is wrong for a President to solicit help from a foreign leader to demand information on political foes?”

Of course, the answer is obviously “NO” for several reasons – that leverage should not be given to a foreign leader (quid pro quo) is merely the most prominent.

But, in fact, the question was uniformly sidestepped.

To give the obvious response would risk the President taking offense. with the implicit and unfavorable comparison with his phone conversation with the Ukrainian President which mentioned Joe Biden.

That would likely generate personal attacks from the President and, perhaps, political retribution from Trump loyalists at home.

And that would not serve the interest of a viable Republican Party post-Trump.

What Has Elijah Cummings Done for Baltimore?

President Donald Trump recently attacked Baltimore Congressman Elijah Cummings for spending time criticizing him  which should be spent helping his trash-strewn, rat-infested, crime-plagued Congressional District.

Apparently, the President’s assault was prompted by scenes broadcast by Fox News of unkempt areas in west Baltimore, part of Mr. Cummings’ district.

To be sure, the President’s observations contained exaggerations, but then so did the   reaction from city and national Democratic leaders springing to the defense of the Congressman.

The question remains:  was there any merit to what Trump said?  Are Representative Cummings’ priorities misplaced?  Should he focus more on helping solve the city’s deep-seated problems and less on building a national profile?

It certainly is hard to overestimate the city’s difficulties.

Baltimore is on the path to becoming the nation’s murder capital again in 2019.  Killings in west Baltimore are a large contribution to this dismal projection.  And educational achievement for city youths ranks at or near the bottom in various categories.

But what do these appalling facts have to do with Congress Cummings?  He is a Federal office holder, not the mayor or a member of the city council.  Anyway, the 7^th District, heavily gerrymandered, includes not only urban west Baltimore, but also suburban central Baltimore County and rural western Howard County.

So to doubt Mr. Cummings responsibility for conditions in west Baltimore is fair. .

Yet consider this:  When Elijah Cummings first ran for Congress in 1996 (twenty-three years ago), he promised to focus on education, crime prevention and health needs in the 7^th District.  (He still recites that early commitment on his campaign website.)

So what happened?  Has he been prominent in mounting the bully pulpit to press for change for Baltimore – which certainly is the heart of his district and where he lives? No.

Has he, as the leading Federal office holder, spearheaded efforts to draw attention to the need for improvement and change in Baltimore City?  Alas, no.

Crime statistics and educational testing establish clearly that things have gotten much worse while Congressman Eljjah Cummings has been in office.

Take the homicide rate -  in 2001, a few years after Mr. Cummings went to Washington, there were 39 murders per 100,000 city residents.  (The national rate was close to 6 per 100,000, making clear that Baltimore already had a very serious crime problem.)  By 2018, that rate had risen to over 50 per 100,000 residents, a 25% leap from 17 years earlier.  (The national rate was still under 6.)

During the Baltimore City riots prompted by the death of Freddie Gray in 2015, Congressman Cummings, to his credit, joined then-Mayor Stephanie Rawlings-Blake  on the streets of Baltimore urging calm.  Good.  But where was the follow-up to provide guidance and leadership?  It is a fact that for months after the rioting ended,  the already high homicide rate rose higher still.  Where was the Congressman then?

The results on the education front are also disheartening.  Testing of the nation’s students pursuant to Federal mandates began in 2009.  Results are reported in the “National Assessment of Education Progress”.  Baltimore city students have performed poorly, even worse in 2017 than eight years earlier.

So, why does Cummings oppose school choice?   It’s a policy which has paid off in improved school performance elsewhere.  But it is also true that teachers’ unions – big backers of Elijah Cummings.- oppose such programs.

Revisit the question in the headline to this article.  Based upon Congressman Cummings’ long ago promises on crime prevention and education, the answer must be “not much”.  President Trump, in his blustering, brash way, had a valid point.